Jumbo Series A rounds hiding the real squeeze on seed startups
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Global startups have closed at least 114 Series A rounds of $100 million or more so far this year, Crunchbase reported in late September, and more than 70% of them went to AI companies. For most seed founders, that headline is a warning.
U.S. startups closed 272 Series A rounds in the third quarter, according to Crunchbase data, about 28% fewer than the 377 a year earlier. Seed held up better, at 984 rounds vs. 1,059. The megarounds hide how few A rounds are getting done.
Seed checks keep growing. The median U.S. seed round was about $3 million last year, 3x its 2018 level, according to Crunchbase. Yet only 24% of companies that raised a $1 million-plus seed in 2023 have moved past seed, and just 16% of the 2024 cohort, down from 55% or higher through 2020.
Size your seed against the Series A
Uncork Capital‘s Andy McLoughlin told Crunchbase News that Series A investors now expect $2 million to $3 million in ARR, sometimes $4 million, and the time from seed to A has stretched past two years. If a seed won’t carry you to that bar with six months to spare, a smaller round is the better deal.
A bigger seed isn’t required. Take Atomic, a New York-based supply chain planning software company founded in 2023 (and not an MGV portfolio company). It raised a $3 million seed, right at the median, in April 2025, led by Madrona and DVx Ventures, then closed a $12.5 million Series A led by Madrona and Klass Capital about 17 months later.
Map your Series A leads now
Funds of $100 million to $500 million typically lead the Series A. Figure out which ones lead at your stage and when their current fund closes, then send the right partners updates for a year before you ask for anything.
Sell your way to the bar
The Series A bar is now a revenue bar, which makes it a go-to-market problem first. Most seed companies I meet have a stronger product than sales motion.
At MGV, our work starts with a first session we call Sales Jumpstart: we interview the founders and their team. We then score the company on our proprietary matrix: where it is today, where it should be, and what it needs to become a scalable go-to-market machine.
From there, founders work through workshops on outbound reach, qualification, profiling, the funnel, objection handling, hiring assessment, compensation plans, fundraising, deck building, storytelling and investor intros, with mentoring alongside.
A company at $2 million in ARR with a sales process a new hire can run is a better Series A candidate than one at $3 million built on founder-led deals nobody else can repeat. The founders who make it are already planning for the round after this one.
As the co-founder and managing partner of MGV, Marc Schröder is committed to establishing MGV as the premier venture firm for world-class tech entrepreneurs to accelerate their visions. Under Schröder’s stewardship, MGV has swiftly ascended to a top-quartile firm, surpassing the performance of 95% of venture funds. Business Insider has recognized him as one of the Top 100 global seed investors, and his perspectives are published regularly in Crunchbase News and other leading publications.
Related Crunchbase query:
Related reading:
Illustration: Dom Guzman
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