Marginal Revolution July 24, 2026 1 min signal 2026-07-24

The optimal Bayesian update?

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I see at least three updates one might make from the recent OAI/Hugging Face hacking incident:

1. “This happened sooner than I expected, and the story is more dramatic than I expected,” therefore I am more worried than before.

2. “This happened, and the inferior Chinese cyber-defense seems to have performed just fine,” therefore I am less worried than before.

3. “This happened, and as far as we can tell, absolutely no one was harmed,” therefore I am less worried than before.

Obviously the net impact, from those bare hypotheses, is indeterminate. And yet few people seem to be paying much heed to #2 or #3. Joshua Saxe from the cyber world has some relevant observations. And perhaps other updates are needed as well.